The previous post—Our Unsustainable Present—served as a sequel to our human backstory, which spanned from deep time and evolutionary origins to the beginning of the 20th Century. We now continue exploring how we arrived at this point in time, enmeshed in what may be described as a mega human predicament, a series of multiple crises perpetuated by our species. If future sustainability becomes a reality, it will surely require overcoming extremely complex and complicated challenges in coming decades. Of course, the sooner collective global action is taken, the more successful our chances will be.
To better understand the depth and breadth of our predicament, a review of the major influences responsible for our modern civilization’s current socioecological worldwide status should help. One of this post’s main points is to emphasize that our current socioeconomic modern global civilization represents the widening gap that exists between humanity and the rest of Nature, somewhat like a form of isolationism. According to our hubristic, superior behavior, our motto could well be “Humans above all”.
Our Unsustainable Modern Socioeconomic Global Civilization
To reiterate: as a human-constructed enterprise, our modern global civilization may be broadly characterized as a neoliberal, free-market, capitalistic economic paradigm. Scholars inform us that the cultural values upon which this paradigm is founded include the socio-cultural systems of patriarchy, hierarchy, individualism, and competition. Altogether, these values are associated with promoting material consumption by means of economic growth, as measured monetarily by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a comprehensive global monetary measure of a nation’s economic activity.
Fabian Scheidler addresses this topic in his book, The End of the Megamachine: A Brief History of a Failing Civilization. Megamachine, a term originated by Lewis Mumford, is defined as a pyramidal structure that leads people to expect hierarchical relationships in all fields of human endeavor, as opposed to relationships based on a person-to-person egalitarian level. Over the past 400-plus years capitalism has eventually evolved into a modern megamachine, a materialistic growth-based economic system powered predominantly by the discovery, extraction, and use of fossil fuels, beginning with the industrial use of coal in the 18th Century.
Unsurprisingly, no proponent of growth seems willing to state how much growth is possible within a finite natural system. It's hard to understand why anyone claiming to be a rational, critical-thinking individual could support the concept of unlimited material growth, especially in a finite world beset with multiple socioecological crises. Perhaps our most crucial human oversight may well be the failure to fully comprehend and acknowledge that all life-sustaining materials in the physical world are provided by Nature. Furthermore, we tend to overlook the reality that all natural resources are limited in volume, or else too difficult (and expensive) to locate and extract.
To better understand Nature’s role as primary provider, we can metaphorically think of natural capital as our true wealth, safely stored in “Nature’s Bank”. This stored wealth represents all essential resources needed for sustaining life and maintaining planetary equilibrium. Irresponsibly, we continue overdrawing and depleting irreplaceable natural reserves, which poses a long-term disadvantage for future humans. Understandably, it’s difficult to realize (much less accept) that, in the process of squandering Nature’s resources, we alone are responsible for creating a super-sized socioecological predicament.
Although this multiple-crises predicament has been labeled a polycrisis, some socioecologists prefer using the term metacrisis. They reason that meta, a Greek word meaning “after” or “beyond”, better explains how all converging crises indicate a substantial alteration of reality, whereby a formerly sustainable existence has been transformed into one that is currently unsustainable, and portending a more unsustainable future. In simple terms, the formerly sustainable world—as we’ve come to view it within the historical context of human civilization—is rapidly transforming into a state of unprecedented socioecological instability.
It's becoming more evident that modernity’s relentless complexity is overwhelming humanity, making it increasingly more challenging to enjoy the type of balanced life that promotes health and wellness for all lifeforms. In fact, a growing number of socially-minded experts are addressing this issue economically, with a proposal that nations collectively replace the current socioeconomic measurement of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with the more humane measurement of Gross National Happiness (GNH), which we’ll address later.
Our Future Prospects: Pro and Con
Prominent socioecological experts believe that humanity’s widening separation from the natural world is responsible for our escalating global predicament. As the majority of world scientists proclaim, we are facing the frightening reality of a disintegrating world that could well lead to the collapse of civilization, in tandem with much of Earth’s biosphere. Indeed, in some global regions both disintegration and collapse of social and ecological systems are already underway, particularly in overpopulated nations affected by the combined deleterious effects of climate change, poverty, and limited sustainable resources. I imagine you’re as concerned as I am about a series of ongoing and developing crises, among them the ongoing geopolitical conflicts (wars), widespread socioecological problems connected with famines, extreme-weather disasters, extinction of species, and wide-spread toxic pollution.
As we enter the mid 2020s, the concluding years of our 110-year present cohort period (see previous post), a growing segment of global society is belatedly awakening to the potential dangers associated with our highly-complex socioecological predicament. In Arnold Joseph Toynbee’s twelve books, A Study of History (1934-1961), the author compared civilizations to organisms whose existences traverse a life cycle in four stages: genesis, growth, breakdown, and disintegration.
Throughout the life-cycle process, how a civilization’s leaders and citizens respond to any challenges reflects their levels of self-determination and self-direction. Accordingly, it seems the present-day globalized human superorganism is experiencing the breakdown stage, and presaging disintegration. Two contemporary socioecologists appear to agree with this prognosis: Richard Heinberg describes our current global predicament as The Great Unraveling, while Nate Hagens predicts that civilization is headed for The Great Simplification. Both interpretations have merit and deserve attention.
As history teaches us, all empires and civilizations experience cyclic periods of integration and disintegration lasting around 200-250 years. So, where does the U.S. place within this time frame? With an estimate based on America’s official founding in 1776 to the mid 2020s, this great nation is currently approximating the 250-age milestone, at the end of the breakdown stage and headed for the disintegration stage.
Although disintegration of civilizations has typically led to periods of reformation, this unique time in history is more of a historical global phenomenon, an anomalous development that’s multiple times more threatening. In the past two decades, the momentum of global crises has inspired the labeling of our current global status as the Great Acceleration.
The reality is that all living species are negatively affected, and the main upstream driver of all crises is pointing to a single culprit: our rapidly expanding human enterprise. Some socioecologists think our lofty designation as Homo sapiens might more accurately be termed Homo colossus, a reference to our lack of wisdom in continuing to support a supersized industrial civilization. This apparent species-specific hubris has inspired socioecological exponents to redefine our human-centered age as the Anthropocene.
A Summary of Social and Ecological Crises
Arguably, whether or not humans may be considered as Earth’s dominant apex predator species, humankind has certainly outdone itself in perpetrating harm on what once was a pristine biosphere, the source of all life sustenance. In addition to the all-encompassing crisis of climate change and the escalating deluge of extreme weather-related global disasters, there are significant ecological and societal crises in play, all driven by our species and climate related. Consider the following:
Ecological crises —1) rapidly warming oceans and impacts on oceans and marine resources, including a potential tipping point associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), 2) species extinction (flora, fauna, and fungi), especially vertebrate species; 3) depletion of key natural materials (renewable and nonrenewable); and 4) pollution of air, water, and soil (and affecting all lifeforms.)
Societal crises —1) social, ethnic, and political polarities, plus endangered global democracy; 2) geopolitical conflicts (including potential for nuclear wars); 3) cyber security on earth and in space; 4) equality-equity gaps; 5) a growing tide of refugees, asylum seekers, and migrants; and 6) health and wellness issues, including obesity and longevity.
An important point to bear in mind is that all of these crises are symbiotically interconnected, and therefore mutually affected. More importantly, a minute change in any system can spark rapid and irreversible transformational effects, both positive and negative. When such a phenomenon occurs, it’s considered a tipping point, which could adversely affect other systems and produce a cascade of rapid changes. The Global Tipping Points report summarizes this topic thoroughly in the following sobering paragraph:
“Currently, there is no adequate global governance at the scale of the threats posed by negative tipping points. The world is on a disastrous trajectory. Crossing one harmful tipping point could trigger others, causing a domino effect of accelerating and unmanageable change to our life-support systems. Preventing this – and doing so equitably – should become the core goal and logic of a new global governance framework. Prevention is only possible if societies and economic systems are transformed to rapidly reduce emissions and restore nature.”
Alas, rather than acknowledging the harms associated with anthropocentric human exceptionalism, we continue exposing our hubris in believing and acting as though we are separate from—and superior to—the rest of Nature. Our principal oversight may be our failure to understand, acknowledge, and accept the limits of our human capacities and capabilities; moreover, that in crossing Nature’s finite boundaries we will predictably inflict long-term irreparable harms on our existing world.
Wrapping Up
In concluding this brief overview of our extended 110-year present civilization, it appears we are poised on the brink of a monumental shift in our socioecological existence. For a deeper dive into learning more about our human predicament, the following alarming scientific reports offer more descriptions and explanations: Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services; Earth Overshoot Day; Ecological Footprint Accounting; IPCC Climate Reports; WWF Living Planet Report; World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice; Earth Beyond Six of Nine Planetary Boundaries; and The Limits to Growth,
As we are learning, all aspects of life are affected by our ongoing socioecological transgressions, which to this point have been introduced with hyperlinks leading to additional information. In the following posts we’ll consider some near-term future options in pursuing a constructive path forward. It needs to be said that, in spite of the dire information discussed thus far, it may yet be possible for humanity to create a sustainable world—if we can manage to think holistically, feel deeply, and act wisely. Envisioning a stable, sustainable existence on Earth could be our most urgently worthwhile goal, when guided by a vision of humanity existing symbiotically and harmoniously with all other species in a sustainable world.
Please join me in exploring, envisioning, and anticipating our possible near-time future story! From all that is happening worldwide, it promises to be an exciting time to be alive.
Go humans!
Thank you…informative, well-written and challenging!